SATURDAY,  DECEMBER 13,  2008

WHITE HOUSE TO THE "RESCUE" - AT 11:01 A.M. ET:  From The New York Times:   WASHINGTON — The Bush administration said on Friday that it was prepared to intervene to prevent the collapse of General Motors and Chrysler after Republican senators blocked a compromise proposal to rescue the automakers.

COMMENT:  So what was the Congressional thing all about, if the White House was ready to write the checks all along?

IT ISN'T EASY BEING GREEN - AT 10:32 A.M. ET:  From The Washington Times:   Former Vice President Al Gore will host a green inaugural ball the night before President-elect Barack Obama takes the oath of office. "The Green Ball: Inauguration of a New Green Economy" will be Jan. 19 at the Smithsonian's National Portrait Gallery.

COMMENT:  Let's start counting the number of people who arrive in 12 mpg limos.  And you can be sure that Al isn't coming by covered wagon.

REMEMBER IRAN?

Posted at 8:14 a.m.ET

Iranian-rights sparkplug Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi alerts me to this excellent analysis, by Amir Taheri, of the president elect's intention to negotiate with Iran.  Iran has been on the back burner recently, but don't expect that to last.  Their nuclear program is roaring ahead.  Taheri:

It was almost two years ago when Barack Obama unveiled his hope for establishing a dialogue with Tehran. Since then, his circle of admirers have presented that hope as an epoch-making innovation, a kind of magic wand that, once waved, would transform the Khomeinist regime from wolf to lamb.

Last Monday, however, Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former President of the Islamic Republic and still a key player in Tehran's complex political game, decided to set the record straight...

..."It is thirty years that you have always wanted to talk to us," he said, addressing Obama. "And it is thirty years that we have refused to talk to you. How could you expect us to talk to you now that you are fixing even heavier preconditions for such talks [to take place]?"

Translated:  The mullahs don't care who's president.  They negotiate only on their own terms.

Taheri points out that Carter, Reagan and Bush 41 all tried to reason with the mullahs, and all failed.  And...

President Bill Clinton went a step further by apologizing to the mullahs for unspecific wrongs that the US had supposedly done to Iran. He lifted some of the sanctions imposed by Carter, Reagan and Bush, and ignored FBI reports documenting Tehran's involvement in attacks against American targets in the region.

Presenting his scheme with the grandiose title of "The Grand Bargain", Clinton offered the mullahs what amounted to a mini-Yalta agreement under which Iran would secure its own zone of influence in the region in exchange for recognizing a similar zone for the US.

The whole thing collapsed.

And the current Bush?

Bush ruled out bilateral talks because he had learned a crucial lesson from the failures of his predecessors. He knew that the mullahs had tantalized successive US administrations with the prospect of talks only to make sure that they faced no American moves against their regime. Once they were sure of that, they had no further interest in talks. However, even George W Bush was to end up being seduced by the prospect of a deal with the mullahs. In May 2006, his new Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice surprised the world by offering direct unconditional talks with the mullahs. Tehran simply ignored the American move. Rice will be leaving office without having received a formal response to her offer.

And Obama?

Rafsanjani showed that he has a far deeper understanding of the problem than Obama.

"Your problem is not with our nuclear program or human rights," he said. "Your problem is with the very nature of our regime."

We hope so.  We certainly hope so.  But Obama hasn't played his cards yet.

Finally...

For all that, it is quite possible that Tehran will welcome Obama's offer of direct talks in a bid to obtain assurances that the US will not help those who seek regime change in Tehran. However, one thing is certain: once the mullahs obtain what they want they will not be prepared to offer any concessions. Obama's head has a good chance of ending up next to those of his predecessors who deluded themselves into believing that they can make a fair deal with the mullahs.

Remember, Rafsanjani has already given the warning.

We have ignored so many warnings.  This will be one of the greatest challenges Obama will face.  He will face it together with his new secretary of state, Hillary Clinton.  It won't take long for us to know where they really stand.

December 13, 2008.      Permalink          

CONGRESSMAN JACKSON WISHES TO EXPLAIN - AT 7:41 A.M. ET:  From AP:   CHICAGO (AP) -- A fundraiser held by Indian-American businessmen three days before Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich was arrested on corruption charges emerged Friday as a potentially key event in the federal investigation into whether he tried to sell President-elect Barack Obama's vacant Senate seat.  Questions are being raised about last Saturday's event for Blagojevich because Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.'s brother, Jonathan, was among those attending....

...Rep. Jackson, however, flatly denied that he or his brother were involved in a scheme for Blagojevich to peddle the Senate seat in return for up to $1.5 million in political contributions.

COMMENT:  We withhold judgment, but the timing of the fundraiser is a bit too convenient.

BE A CLOWN, BE A CLOWN - AT 7:32 A.M. ET:  From AP:   Former US president Jimmy Carter said Friday that he would have been "delighted" to meet Hizbullah officials and that he regrets the meeting didn't take place during his current visit to Lebanon...

... The former US leader had said he was ready to meet Hizbullah, but they refuse to meet current or former US presidents.

COMMENT:  The man continues to be a public embarrassment.  He has repeatedly violated respected tradition and interfered with American foreign policy since leaving office.  He grovels to foreign dictators, but seems to resent his own country.  Be gone with you.

THE BLOOD SPORT - AT 7:26 A.M. ET:  From The New York Post:   ALBANY - A powerful labor leader with strong ties to Sen. Hillary Clinton yesterday joined the growing ranks of Democrats bashing Caroline Kennedy as a possible successor to the former first lady in the US Senate.  "Caroline Kennedy, although I'm sure a fascinating and engaging person, simply doesn't have the experience or Washington know-how to get it done for New York," said Stuart Applebaum, president of the 100,000- member Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union.

COMMENT:  Caroline is probably toast.  It was a fantasy to believe that Hillary Clinton would allow Caroline Kennedy to have her seat in the Senate after Caroline campaigned for Obama in the primaries.  This is payback big time.

FRIDAY,  DECEMBER 12,  2008

RENEE

Posted at 7:32 p.m. ET:

Regular readers of Urgent Agenda know that Renee Nielsen, president of Republicans Abroad in India, has been sending us superb reports on the situation in Mumbai, site of the recent terrorist attacks.  Here is Renee's latest:

-  The papers are still looking for security failures from the Mumbai attacks.  The Times of India reports:

NEW DELHI: Alertness by an Indian patrol vessel on the night of November 26 could have prevented the Mumbai carnage.  Lakshar terrorist Ajmal Amir Kasav has told investigators that just before the 10 jihadis abandoned the trawler "Kuber" to take inflatable boats to dock at Mumbai, an Indian vessel--either from the Navy or the Coast Guard and seemingly on routine patrol with a sailor scanning it through binoculars.  The scrutiny was close enough to cause the terrorists to take positions and alert their Lashkar bosses. The Lashkar commanders ordered the gang to stay still and avoid a confrontation with the patrol. Soon, the vessel, perhaps taken in by the Indian ownership of Kuber, moved on. But in their haste to move out, the panicky jihadis forgot to destroy their satphone and GPS device.

 This was an instruction that had been sternly drilled into the group by the Lashkar trainers in the camps where they were trained, in the safehouse at Azizabad near Karachi where they had been put up before being sent and, one last time, on board Al Hussaini, the Lashkar ship which they sailed on before capturing Kuber.

The satellite phone, with five logged calls to Lashkar brass, is a trove of information that can blast apart Pakistan's denial that the terrorists were launched from its territory and by a group which is an extension of its espionage agency, the ISI. India's agencies have been familiar with one of these logged numbers which has regularly popped up in the course of investigation into terrorist attacks. It belongs to Abu Al Qama, a known Lashkar mastermind of jihadi violence.

My personal opinion is that the media and especially officials here are talking way too much about these satellite phones and the calls made to/from, as this is an ongoing investigation.  The officials aren't even being quoted as anonymous sources.  It's just straight, legitimate, reporting and a lot of this information is coming from interrogators based on confessions of the surviving terrorist.        

-  Another development is in the basic legal case against the surviving terrorist, Ajmal Qasab, developed by the Indian authorities.  A public defender, Dinesh Mota, who was originally assigned as defense counsel, says his life "turned into a nightmare" when he was told he would have to represent Qasab. He said "I'm a Mumbaiker and all the victims are like my family."  The Mumbai Mirror reported that Mota told the Esplanade court that he didn't want to defend Qasab on "moral grounds," and then waited to see if the court would grant his request for withdrawal, which it did.  No new attorney has been assigned the case as of now.  I would expect lots of problems getting someone to represent this guy.

-  The DNA has reported that Qasab will undergo a narco-analysis test "to corroborate all that he has confessed to so far and to get more information about the conspiracy, police said on Friday."

-  Austria gets in on the terror action.  DNA also reports:

The grenades seized from Mohammad Ajmal Amir, the lone arrested terrorist, were manufactured in Austria.

The Mumbai police have written to the Austrian company asking for the purchase details of the grenades. "It has been learnt that the company has stopped manufacturing the grenades. We want to know which agency has the manufacturing and distributing rights," Rakesh Maria, joint commissioner of police and the crime branch chief, said. The grenades seized from Amir were of the same make as those used in the 1993 serial blasts in Mumbai, he said.

The police have seized several grenades with a marking, Arges, in bold letters, followed by 'Spl HG 64' and the serial number 7-93-003, a police source said. The Arges brand name belongs to Rheinmetall Waffe Munition, a company in Austria. And Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) manufactured the grenades under licence for use by the Pakistan Army.

That should be interesting.

Indeed.  Another good report from Renee Nielsen, who provides us with details not available in the mainstream media.

December 12, 2008.      Permalink          

FREE AT LAST? - AT 6:56 P.M. ET - WASHINGTON (AP) - People who have been briefed on the Illinois governor corruption investigation say Barack Obama chief of staff Rahm Emanuel is not a target of the probe. Emanuel, a Chicago congressman who would have been a likely contact between the Obama transition office and Gov. Rod Blagojevich, has been a focus of media attention since Obama said Thursday he has asked for an internal review of contacts between his staff and Blagojevich.

COMMENT:  That's fine, but we want to know what discussions took place, and what the Obama team knew about the "seat for sale."

FROM THE GOLDEN AGE - AT 6:18 P.M. ET:  Van Johnson has died at 92.  He symbolized the term "movie star" during the golden age of Hollywood, in the forties and fifties.  He was the boy down the block, the kid who went to war with all the others.  He may never have been a great actor, but he had a screen presence matched by few others.  We have "boy down the block" actors today, but, after watching them, we often want them to stay there. 

A SHOCKING CHOICE - AT 5:57 P.M. ET:  From the Dallas Morning News: 

COLLEGE STATION, Texas – President George W. Bush urged a life of public service and integrity to Texas A&M graduates Friday morning, picking a friendly crowd of Aggies for his final commencement speech as president.

Picking a "friendly crowd"?  I love that line.  He should have picked, maybe, a convention of the Daily Kos?  Then there's this:

On Friday, some of the advice he offered served double duty, sounding much like a defense of a presidency viewed dimly by most Americans.

Let's keep kicking him, shall we?  But the president spoke words of great wisdom:

“Remember that popularity is as fleeting as the Texas wind. Character and conscience are as sturdy as the oaks on this campus,” he said.

Harry Truman felt that way as well.  He was also "viewed dimly" as he left office.

SOMEONE GIVE THEM A MAP - AT 5:43 P.M. ET:  From The Washington Post: 

BRUSSELS, Dec. 12 -- The leaders of Europe adopted what they described as a historic pact to combat global warming Friday and challenged President-elect Barack Obama to join in their commitment to drastically reduce greenhouse gases despite the global economic crisis.

The 27 European Union nations also endorsed a $260 billion economic stimulus plan, equivalent to 1.5 percent of the bloc's gross domestic product, and urged the Obama administration to prepare similarly ambitious measures and financial reforms for coordinated action at a summit of the world's 20 major economic powers scheduled April 2 in London.

COMMENT:  It's already starting - the Europeans, who believe they're the center of the universe, making demands on Americans.  Someone give them a map.  We are America.  We don't do things just because Europe does.  Despite all the new warnings from first-class scientists that the global-warming "research" is unreliable, they go ahead and do a treaty anyway, the better to be invited to the most fashionable parties.  As far as "stimulus" is concerned, let's get it right, which may not mean getting it European. 

Obama must make it clear that he will be president of the United States, with his first obligation to this country.

THE END FOR BLAGO? - AT 5:39 P.M. ET: 

Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan asked the state’s Supreme Court for permission to seek the temporary removal of Governor Rod Blagojevich following his arrest this week on corruption charges.

“I recognize that this is an extraordinary request but these are extraordinary circumstances,” Madigan said today at a press conference in Chicago.

If the court grants her request, Madigan said she’ll file a lawsuit seeking Blagojevich’s temporary replacement by Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn and an order barring Blagojevich from naming a replacement U.S. senator for President-Elect Barack Obama.

OF COURSE, JACKSON NEVER KNEW - AT 9:27 A.M. ET:  From The Chicago Tribune:

As Gov. Rod Blagojevich was trying to pick Illinois' next U.S. senator, businessmen with ties to both the governor and U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. discussed raising at least $1 million for Blagojevich's campaign as a way to encourage him to pick Jackson for the job, the Tribune has learned.

Blagojevich made an appearance at an Oct. 31 luncheon meeting at the India House restaurant in Schaumburg sponsored by Oak Brook businessman Raghuveer Nayak, a major Blagojevich supporter who also has fundraising and business ties to the Jackson family, according to several attendees and public records.

Two businessmen who attended the meeting and spoke to the Tribune on the condition of anonymity said that Nayak and Blagojevich aide Rajinder Bedi privately told many of the more than two dozen attendees the fundraising effort was aimed at supporting Jackson's bid for the Senate.

Nothing to see here, folks.  Nothing to see.

THE ENERGIZER BUNNIES

Posted at 9:03 a.m. ET

There was much relief on the right when Mr. Obama announced his first set of appointments - sane choices in foreign policy, considering the president-elect's liberal background.

That may start to change.  The new environmental team is already raising questions.  Is this the payoff to the left?  Is Al Gore pulling the strings?  Will "In Climate Change We Trust" replace our national motto? 

The Wall Street Journal takes on the president's new choices, and finds grounds for making gray hair even grayer: 

After the selection of a largely centrist economic team, liberals have been asking when President-elect Obama would give them a seat at the table. Well, now we know, and Americans should strap themselves in. Mr. Obama is stocking his energy shop with the greenest of greens who want to move fast on a very aggressive climate agenda. Here come the carbon busters.

The Journal is sanguine about Steven Chu, a Nobel laureate in physics, nominated to be energy secretary:

We trust...that an expert of his sophistication understands not only the promise of clean tech but its real practical limits.

It slides downhill after that:

The same can't be said for Carol Browner, the Al Gore protégé who ran the Environmental Protection Agency during the Clinton years. This time she gets a promotion to "energy czar," a new job that Mr. Obama envisions as akin to National Security Advisor but for climate. "Czar" is an apt title for Ms. Browner, who built a reputation as the most left-leaning of Bill Clinton's advisers.

That certainly says it.

During her EPA salad days, she put out air-pollution standards that even the agency itself said would have no measurable impact on public health, purely as antibusiness punishment. She forced GE to dredge the Hudson River of PCBs that posed no threat to the public. Ms. Browner also rewrote a law called New Source Review so that power plants, refineries and other industries were always breaking the particulate emissions rules.

We are in a serious economic downturn.  Browner appears to be exactly the kind of person we don't need in government right now.  There are rational, non-vindictive environmentalists who could have been appointed.  But moveon.org must be pleased.

The Obama Administration is "sitting on some authority," Ms. Browner warned at the Center for American Progress recently. She says the White House is prepared to use that power "in the event that perhaps there can't be some sort of agreement reached with Congress on how to move legislation." In other words, Ms. Browner will use the threat of brute regulatory force as a political bludgeon if Capitol Hill declines to inflict some carbon tax on voters in the midst of a recession.

Not only will this incur colossal economic costs, but it bypasses normal democratic debate. In that sense it's suggestive of the radicalism of Mr. Obama's climate agenda. When Mr. Obama said during the campaign that he favored "nothing less than the complete transformation of our economy" in the name of global warming, we figured he couldn't mean something so utopian. Maybe he does.

Finally...

At a Congressional hearing last year, Ms. Browner declared that trying to eliminate carbon -- a main input of industrial civilization -- "need not bankrupt us." As a standard for policy, that's not exactly reassuring.

We hope that the president-elect, who is a shrewd political practitioner, will restrain this crowd once his administration is actually in place.  If he doesn't, he can prolong the economic agony.  Further, much of the science behind some darling causes of the environmental movement is now being seriously questioned.  We hope, maybe against hope, that Secretary Chu will examine the latest findings and skepticism, and act accordingly.

We all want a decent environment.  We want it achieved thoughtfully, and with attention to real science, not political science.

December 12, 2008.      Permalink          

TALE OF TWO HEADLINES - AT 7:49 A.M. ET:  From The Washington Post, this morning:

Obama Worked to Distance Self From Blagojevich Early On

From John Fund in The Wall Street Journal, this morning:

Obama Was Mute on Illinois Corruption

Please recall that Deborah Howell, the ombudsman of The Washington Post, conceded recently that the Post's coverage of the election campaign was biased toward Obama.  Now, when we see the first headline noted above, what are we to think?  We are skeptical, questioning.  That is what happens when a great newspaper begins to lose its credibility.

LAND OF LINCOLN?

Posted at 7:25 a.m. ET

Having worked in Illinois politics early in my career, the current scandal brings back memories.  I worked for a good guy, the incorruptible Senator Paul H. Douglas, whom President-elect Obama admirably identifies as one of his role models.  I recall Mr. Douglas, in 1960, showing me around New Salem, Illinois, where Lincoln grew up.  It was an incredible experience being taken through a historic site by a truly fine public servant.  As I glance to the right while writing this, I see on my bookshelf a copy of "Lincoln's New Salem," autographed by Senator Douglas. 

But there was the other side of Illinois politics, and we were well aware of it.  The Chicago machine, under Mayor Richard Daley, was in full power.  I was once introduced to man described to me as one of the most powerful men in the city.  He was the parking commissioner - controlled all those meters and those who attended and serviced them.   You wanted a job in the parking business?  He was the go-see guy.

The events of this week are therefore bittersweet.  We have, since the election, wished the president-elect well.  We hold no anger about the result.  As we said from the start, there's no point in being angry over an election.  The idea is to prepare for the next one.  We have praised some of the president-elect's appointments, and have been impressed by the poise an dignity with which he's pursued the transition.  But I just have a sense that the Illinois scandal surrounding Governor Rod Blagojevich is growing, and that it will inevitably touch Mr. Obama, or, more likely, key members of his staff.  It's been widely noted that incoming chief of staff Rahm Emanuel was missing from Mr. Obama's press conference yesterday.  Close adviser David Axelrod has done handstands in the last week to walk back some earlier comments asserting that Obama and the governor had spoken about filling Obama's Senate seat.

The Washington Post runs a semi-whitewash in today's edition, arguing that Obama has tried to distance himself from the governor, and some of the material is persuasive.  However, even the Post says:

But Obama and Blagojevich shared pieces of the Chicago political network, which is why this has been an uncomfortable week for Obama's presidential transition team. Senior adviser David Axelrod once advised Blagojevich. Antoin "Tony" Rezko, a developer who was convicted in June of fraud and money laundering, raised money for both men. Robert Blackwell Jr., a longtime Obama friend, served on Blagojevich's gubernatorial transition team. Blagojevich appointed one of Obama's closest confidants, Eric Whitaker, as director of the Illinois Department of Public Health.

The president-elect's connection to Blagojevich is emblematic of his political rise in Chicago. Obama had contact with corruption, but rarely firsthand. He relied on the establishment when he needed it, but he maintained enough distance to cast himself as an outsider.

Perception, they say, is everything in politics.  The American public has shown enormous good will toward the president-elect, and his approval ratings have risen since the election.  But he will be inaugurated in a bit more than a month, and he now has this scandal pushing at his team's door.  He's got to do more than he has to practice full disclosure, publish any embarrassing facts, and address legitimate concerns. 

Don't be shocked if some members of the Obama operation don't make it to the White House.  There is still space under the bus, and they'd be meeting many other former friends of the president-elect.

December 12, 2008.       Permalink